User blog:Hurricane Layten/Major change to Day 1 outlook

OK, new post to outline the big change that happened at 1630 UTC. It appears that the system that caused an upgraded to an Enhanced Risk is now capable of producing tornadoes and widespread damaging winds.

Areas under the Enhanced Risk include eastern Texas, most of northern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas. This region is of particular interest for monitoring, with CAPE values at 1200 j/kg3, which is enough energy to allow for severe thunderstorms to acquire the rotation they need to turn into supercells.

Areas covered in the ridiculously large Slight Risk include parts of OK, MS, KS, and NE. The main risk here is expected to be significant winds, and maybe a marginal risk of tornadoes.

Areas under the Enhanced Risk are under a 10% chance of tornadoes (Slight), and a 50% (Moderate) Risk of the events occurring. I'll update this post when the 2000 UTC outlook is released.