User blog:Hurricane Layten/May 27, 2017 outlook

OK, so a Moderate Risk of severe weather has been issued on the 0600 UTC SPC outlook, which is mentioning the possibility of several severe wind gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes.

The Moderate Risk area covers most of MO, as well as parts of KS, OK, AR, TN, KY and IN. Within this area, there is a High (45%) risk of severe wind gusts, a High (45%) risk of large to very large hail, and a Slight (10%) risk of tornadoes. The Enhanced Risk entirely surrounds the Moderate area, as usual, and also covers parts of IL, as well as the remainder of TN. The Slight Risk covers the areas around the Moderate and Enhanced Risks, and goes up into the eastern coast.

I'd like to finish by saying that thunderstorms have already caused the issuance of a severe thunderstorm watch over parts of AR, KY, MS, TN, and MS, which could become a tornado watch if current storm development trends continue. To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised to see a High Risk issued later today, as the setup in the modelling and soundings certainly supports the possibility of a significant weather outbreak.

Anyway, I shall update this post later on if the risk gets upgraded to High, the Moderate Risk area gets expanded,or it gets downgraded to an Enhanced.