User blog:Hurricane Layten/An update on this weeks severe weather risk

OK, so the new convective outlooks have been released by SPC, with today now being marked as Marginal Risk over parts of northwestern TX, with the only threat being large hail associated with stronger thunder storms during the afternoon and into the evening. In addition to this, only thunderstorms are forecast along the US Gulf Coast and central states, but I seriously wouldnt be surprised if a Marginal or Slight Risk were to be issued in association with the dryline trying to set itself up across the shortwave trough that will be responsible for the outbreak of severe weather this week.

As for Day 3 of the outlook, this is where things change. An Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms is currently forecast for areas of eastern OK, the whole state of AR, and parts of MI as well. In addition to this, there are Slight Risks for severe thunderstorms across TN, IN, MI and OH, but not reaching as far north and west as yesterdays events did. A Marginal Risk is in place for parts of TX, TN and OH in addition to this. The main threat is expected to be severe wind and hail, though at this point, tornadoes cant be ruled out for sure.

The Day 4 outlooks still indicate a 15% hatched risk area for parts of LA, MS, AL, AR,TN and southern KY. Although this risk remains uncertain to at this time, it is likely to be another wind and hail event,although tornadoes may be possible.

Anyway, i'll update as more information becomes available, or if anew risk emerges relating to the current dday covective outlooks as I usually do.