User blog comment:Hurricane Layten/Potentially major outbreak on the horizon/@comment-33214248-20170219234044

Yeah, Indiana and 15% chances of severe weather, not a good thing...here is how the SPC thinks this is going to go down...



ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190943 SPC AC 190943 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   0343 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... The potential for severe thunderstorms will focus late in the work week as a very strong mid-level speed max moves from the Four Corners into the Great Plains on Thursday (Day 5) and later into the OH Valley/Great Lakes on Friday (Day 6). Despite the development of   a deep surface cyclone over the central Great Plains on Thursday, limited moisture because of an early-mid week mid-level low over the Gulf of Mexico will likely prove detrimental in the return of rich low-level moisture into the central and southern Great Plains. The greatest risk for severe thunderstorms appears to occur on Friday across the far southern Great Lakes and OH Valley. Both deterministic ECMWF and GFS models have exhibited consistency in   longitudinally placing the aforementioned closed low/trough in the vicinity of IA. Models and their ensembles indicate that an    elevated mixed layer originating from the Great Plains will be    advected into the highlighted area along with a strong consensus for marginal low-level moisture (50s degrees F boundary-layer   dewpoints). Given the expected setup, sufficient confidence is   attained for some severe risk to be highlighted graphically, with the expected severe hazard to be mainly damaging winds. Additional adjustments in the area are likely with subsequent outlooks as   confidence increases with spatial placement of the severe risk. ..Smith.. 02/19/2017   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT