User blog comment:Hurricane Layten/Devastation in Canton Texas following tornadoes/@comment-26014793-20170430180501

Yeah, I was afraid this would happen especially since a lot of very violent tornadoes in the past few years have been under very low risks.

The Canadian, Texas tornado on May 27, 2015 was under a 2% risk and a severe thunderstorm watch with a 20% probability 5% probability of significant tornadoes, but on radar it looked almost exactly the same as the May 18, 2018 Rozel, Kansas tornado (a mid-range to high-end EF4). Luckily the 2015 tornado was literally in the middle of nowhere and only left EF3 damage and no injuries or deaths.

Then the Abilene, Kansas tornado on May 25, 2015 was under a 5% risk and a 30/20 probability watch...and turned out to be probably one of the most violent Great Plains tornadoes since Jarrell. I think it was one of the most blatantly underrated tornadoes on the EF scale along with the Vilonia, Arkansas and Washington/Goldsby, Oklahoma tornadoes.

And then this year there was the Dimmitt, Texas tornado on April 14, which looked a lot like the 2011 El Reno tornado on radar, which means that it was probably at or near EF5 strength; and again it was under a 2% risk and a severe thunderstorm watch. And again, it was very slow-moving and only its extreme outer bands grazed past a few buildings, even then leaving EF3-level damage.

It was pretty much pure luck that none of these three caused any injuries or fatalities. The Abilene tornado especially was on the ground for over 10 minutes before a warning was issued, and by then it was already at EF3 strength. The people in the paths were incredibly lucky...sadly, not this time. You really can't rely on chance to keep people safe.