User blog:Hurricane Layten/My 2017 tornado season outlook

OK, i know i havent been very active today on the whole (i got addicted to a game for most of the day, lol), but im back now with this blog.

As we have seen over the weekend, at least 30-odd tornadoes have touched down across the states of MS, LA, AL, FL, GA and SC, accumulating to 22 deaths in total, and well over $200 million in dmaages, making it one of the worst winter outbreaks on record.

The NWS SPC had a High Risk bust, but it helped saved hundreds, perhaps thousands of lives as large, long lived (but not the expected violent( tornadoes touched down.

From what the ENSO forecast models are saying, the year seems at this point in time to be favouring an active US tornado season, with the unfortunate possibility of damaging, violent and deadly tornadoes, as we saw over the weekend. If La Nina holds on throughout spring, which it may well do, tornado mahem is certainly on the menu for the US.

Even if its only n ENSO neutral main season, the tornado season is being favoured by coller than normal waters off the West Coast, and well above normal waters of the Gulf and East Coasts, making the risk for devastating outbreaks rise exponentially as a result.

Im thinking that perhaps 1100 tornadoes could touch down this year if the conditions warrant, but tornadic activity forecasting is far from a well known technique,and only time will tell.

As with this weekends outbreak, i will post regular (ish) updates whilst these events are taking place, and will upload damage images and images of the tornadoes on here if i am able to get hold of them. Stay alert, and ill be posting when the next significant event occurs.

Saying that, global forecasting models are indicating a stormy February for the central and southern US,but again, the timing is so out that only time will tell. Ill post more towards the time.