User blog:Hurricane Layten/Dangerous tornado outbreak expected this week

OK, I thought I'd bring you upto date with the latest  developments on the expected tornado outbreak this week, so here goes.

Another trough is expected to move across the Plains on Frida, and coupled withan initial capping sector along a developing warm front, the conditions are forecast to be favourable for severe development later in the day once the cap breaks. This will allow fpr the possibility of supercell development, bring t=bringing the threat of large to very large hail, strong to dmaaging winds, and tornadoes to these areas. The SPC 30% hatched risk area is covering most of OK, as well as parts of AR. It is worth noting that an anticipated dryline is expected to form in this area, and that CAPE values will be extremely high - 5500 J/kg3 in some locations, which could easily fuel dangerous storms. Also present here will be extremely favourable shear. I am currently expecting a Moderate Risk for this day.

On Day 5, the trough again amplifies, which could produce a highly unstable atmosphere over parts of TX, OK and AR, where a similar risk is forecast. I wouldnt be surprised to see at least a Moderate Risk for this day either.

Anyway, I'll keep watch on the developing situation, as always.