User blog comment:Hurricane Layten/Another potentially dangerous outbreak on the way/@comment-31083079-20170204230613/@comment-26014793-20170205043357

It's almost impossible to say exactly how bad an outbreak will be before it happens, unfortunately. Plenty of High Risk days have busted, and plenty of Slight Risk days have delivered strong or violent tornadoes leading to death and destruction. For example, May 1, 2010 was a high risk day that busted hard, while May 25, 2008 ended up producing a long-tracked and deadly EF5 near Parkersburg, Iowa which was only under a 5% risk of tornadoes that day. The 2011 Joplin and 2013 Moore tornadoes took place in areas under 10% hatched tornado risk (Enhanced Risk) areas as well. If we could predict strong/violent tornadoes on a certain day, there would probably not be as many fatalities since people could prepare better, but, unfortunately, it really isn't possible to say for sure.

As for where the system will be, it's looking like the Gulf Coast will get hit (again), followed by the Mississippi Valley area and then the Midwest. SPC has the highest risk on Tuesday but the Wednesday-Friday range also seem to have at least some potential.