User blog:SilentShadow87/Severe weather threat: January 21-22

Today the Storm Prediction Center issued a moderate risk for the Ark-La-Miss region and an enhanced risk for most of the Southeast. A 10% risk of tornadoes has been issued for the Ark-La-Miss area, and a 10% hatched risk for the Florida Panhandle, Southeast Alabama, and Central Georgia. There have already been several squall lines in Alabama and Georgia with some small, localized areas of rotation, and a few wind and tornado reports this morning. Supercells are expected to fire up in the Ark-La-Miss region this afternoon as a shortwave creates more lift, followed by either another squall line or more supercells in the evening and overnight in Alabama, Georgia and Florida.

I think this is the earliest moderate risk issued in the year since 2008. We are under a La Nina right now, but it's looking like it'll be ENSO neutral by March/April, which could mean a decrease in severe activity.