User blog:Hurricane Layten/Another potentially dangerous outbreak on the way

My gosh, here we go again...

For the last 3 days, the GFS CAPE models have been consistent with showing a widespread line of dangerous, high precipitation supercells kicking up across much of the Gulf Coast, before travelling up through the midwest, where the setup will be able to favour a widespread severe weather outbreak.

I would not be surprised to see at least a moderate risk from this event, which is set to occur somewhere between Tuesday and Friday, depending on which of the models you see as being most trustworthy.

The NWS SPC is currently forecasting a 15% chance of severe weather occurring across much of the midwest and central US beginning Tuesday. Looking at the models, it appears there is once again the possibility that long track, violent tornadoes could occur.

The best thing to do right now is sit around and watch the situation develop, and then report again when the system has had enough time to develop properly.