User blog comment:Hurricane Layten/Likely tornado risk in extended SPC outlook/@comment-33214248-20170316140738/@comment-26014793-20170317224720

I agree with Layten, although I'd say it's more possible now that a standard for a High Risk under the new system has been set. There was a lot of talk at the SPC for a High Risk on December 23, 2015 and May 26, 2016, but in both cases they decided against it because there wasn't really a standard for what qualified a High Risk under the five-point system. While I wouldn't call the January 22 High Risk a complete bust (20 tornadoes, 2 EF3, 16 fatalities) I think a Moderate Risk probably would have been more appropriate in hindsight. On the other hand I also think in hindsight January 21 and February 28 this year both should have been High Risk days.

As for the system next Friday, it's really hard to tell this far out. If the model runs end up verifying, I'd say an Enhanced Risk is almost a sure bet, a Moderate Risk is pretty likely, and a High Risk is possible.