User blog comment:Hurricane Layten/Enhanced Risk remains unchanged/@comment-26074320-20170224171313

1700 UTC SPC SUMMARY:

...Southern Lower MI/Northern IN...   Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Water vapor loops show a large upper trough over the Central Plains, while a deep surface low tracks northeastward across northern IL. The initial severe concern will be ahead of the surface low and into the vicinity of the warm front lifting northward into MI. Relatively strong heating and low level moisture advection will result in   MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg along and south of the boundary. 12z model solutions are consistent in developing scattered thunderstorms along this corridor this afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings suggest a favorable vertical shear profile for discrete supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. This portion of the outlook area holds the greatest concern for supercell tornadoes later today. ...IN/OH/KY...   The forecast scenario for this area remains on track. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front over IN and central KY   this afternoon and spread eastward across the risk area this evening. Strong wind fields and steep low level lapse rates will promote a fast-moving squall line capable of damaging winds and hail. If sufficient mesoscale organization can occur along the line, isolated QLCS tornadoes could also be a threat.