User blog:Hurricane Layten/March 27, 2017 outlook

Today's Day 1 outlook has become an Enhanced Risk for parts of MS, AR, KY, and most of the central areas of TN. A Slight Risk surrounds this area, as usual, followed by the Marginal.

The main risks for today are for damaging winds and hail associated with the ongoing midwave trough over the continental US. Coupled with the merging of the system with a developing low level warm front, this should enable significant instability to occur in the areas mentioned. In addition to this, a weak surface low and will move over the MS valley, and into the OH valley as well as a developing cold front stalls over the lower MS valley.

CAPE values for this afternoon (US time) are between 1000-1500 j/kgk3, allowing for significant instability to occur as a result of this. Some of these storms could get severe, dropping large hail and producing damaging winds, as already mentioned.Although tornadoes arent mentioned in the SPC forecast on the 0930 UTC outlook, they certainly cant be ruled out, especially within the strongest storms, but I guess we will see what happens on that scenario.

Unrelated to this post, but a supercell produced ping pong ball sized hail in Justin TX, as wellas a confirmed tornado by the Justin Fire Department.

Anyway, I'll update this post if its needed.