2027 Eastern European Super Outbreak

The 2027 Eastern European Super Outbreak was a record breaking tornado outbreak that occurred in early May of 2027 in Northeastern Europe. It was the most severe, destructive, and deadly tornado outbreak in European history, featuring a record-breaking 4 violent tornadoes. The countries of Poland, Lithuania, Belarus, and Russia all experienced significant tornadoes, with Poland, Lithuania, and Russia experiencing violent tornadoes (F4 or stronger). May 7th was the most active day of the outbreak, with 9 tornadoes touching down, including the strongest, deadliest, most damaging, and longest tracked tornado of the outbreak, which tore a 163 mile (262 km) long damage path through Northeastern Poland, Southeastern Lithuania, and Northwestern Belarus. Typically, Lithuania records around 2 tornadoes per year, but in this outbreak, 5 tornadoes caused recorded damage in Lithuania within 3 days.

In total, the outbreak resulted in 1901 fatalities, with 1784 of them from the Vilnius F5 tornado, and more than 13,723 injuries, with more than 10,000 of them from the F5 Vilnius tornado. The damage toll reached $3.5 billion, with $2.9 billion caused by the F5 Vilnius tornado.

Meteorological synopsis
In early May, a warm dry front from southern Europe collided with a cool moist front from Scandinavia. The collision of fronts resulted in conditions favorable for thunderstorm formation, and extremely high CAPE values of 4000 - 5000 J/kg with high upper shear meant that there was a high chance of supercell formation.

The storm system that eventually resulted in the outbreak started forming late on May 6th, over the southern Baltic Sea, and moved generally east-northeast until it died out late on May 9th over northeastern Belarus and southwestern Russia. Probabilities of tornado formation were not issued by any official weather agency, however unofficial agencies issued a peak tornado formation probability of 60%.