User blog:Hurricane Layten/Uncertainty in near future forecasts

OK, so the SPC has changed the forecasts yet again. I Days 4, 7 and 8 are now marked as predictability too low, but marking an uncertain possibility for severe weather.

The dryline that is expected to cause the severe threat later this week will form in the day 3/4 time frame, and poses some forecasting difficulties with its exact timings.

Say 3 now has a Marginal Risk across the Rockies, and which could potentially become a Slight if model runs can remain consistent on the dryline scenario.

The Day 5 and 6 outlooks continue to show a large 15% hatched risk area, we have and the potential for severe thunderstorms capable or producing at least damaging winds and significant hail is increasing with every run I've seen. Personally, I think there may also be a slight risk of a few tornadoes, and particularly on Day 5 when the dryline is forecast to be at its most dominant.

As the week goes on, the potential for a severe weather event is uncertain, and mainly because of large differences between the ECMWF and GFS model runs. The however, the besides the uncertainty, and a severe weather event is forecast, the just without a hatched risk at this time due to the forecasting difficulties at this time.

I will, but I as always, I continue to monitor the situation as it develops, and and will post updates here when the time comes.