User blog comment:SPCBlackfordCounty995Main/4 dead in tornadoes with a second day of tornadoes today./@comment-27225426-20170121185220/@comment-26014793-20170121200155

It definitely isn't looking good so far, but last year had a pretty brutal early season followed by an April drought and then a spectacular May with almost no fatalities. Back at the end of February last year I would have said we were in for a repeat of 2008, and then the year ended up playing out more like 2012.

I'm sure you remember how 2012 and 2013 had active early seasons then basically shut off. 2006 and 2016 had active early seasons and ended up with average and just a bit below average numbers. Then of course 2008 and 2011 had active early seasons and things just picked up from there...at this point I'm not fully sure what to expect from this year. Obviously a good part of it depends on how long the Nina lasts.