Hypothetical Tornadoes Wiki

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The 2024 Green Bay-Appleton Tornado was a destructive EF5 tornado that struck the Appleton and Green Bay areas on May 30, 2024. This tornado was one of the deadliest and most destructive tornadoes in Wisconsin State history. This Tornado was part of an ongoing outbreak From May 29-31, 2024.

Meteorological Synopsis[]

The Storm prediction center issued a high risk for severe weather for Central and Eastern Wisconsin, Northern Illinois, Northern Indiana and western Michigan, with a moderate risk for severe weather in Southern and Central Illinois, Eastern Michigan, Ohio and Western Pennsylvania for May 30, 2024, including a 45% hatched risk for tornadoes including some violent and long tracked tornadoes. this was due to a extratropical cyclone that formed over California on May 25 and slowly moved east. In the morning hours of May 30. the extratropical cyclone that had already caused a massive tornado outbreak in the central U.S on May 29 moved into the great lakes and Midwest region. By noon several weak tornadoes had touched down across Wisconsin and parts of Missouri and Illinois, with one EF4 tornado tearing through Edwardsville, Illinois around 1:45 PM CDT. Several thunderstorms had formed over Wisconsin just after 1 PM CDT. 1 death from straight line winds were reported in Madison.

The Tornado[]

Throughout the Morning hours on May 30th thunderstorm had developed over Central Wisconsin moving east. These Thunderstorms became severe shortly after Noon and had formed into a supercell producing frequent cloud to ground lightning and large hail up to an inch in diameter. At 2:12 PM CDT the Supercell was located over Larsen, moving Northeast at 50 MPH. NWS Doppler radar detected rotation in the supercell prompting The national weather service in Green Bay issued a tornado warning for Eastern Outagamie and Brown county. Shortly after storm Spotters confirmed that a tornado touched down 4 Miles Southwest of Appleton moving Northeast at 45 MPH. The Tornado was rapidly intensifying and had obtained EF3 status with sustained winds of 165 MPH by the time it reached Appleton. This Tornado caused extensive damage in Appleton with 4 people dying when a trailer park was destroyed Storm spotters reported EF3 damage in Appleton as many homes lost their roofs and significant siding damage had occurred.

The tornado tracked Northeastward at 45 MPH and arrived in little rapids at 2:23 PM CDT. This tornado tore through Little Rapids at EF4 strength with sustained winds of 190 MPH. Complete destruction occurred in little rapids with 15 casualties reported Tornado Emergency was issued for Green Bay at 2:21 PM CDT as Doppler radar confirmed the Tornado would directly impact Green Bay. The tornado passed through De Pere at 2:25 PM CDT leaving behind catastrophic EF5 damage. The tornado would have sustained winds of 206 mph and gusting up to 220 mph based on damage surveys. 5 more casualties we're reported in De Pere as well as downed power lines, complete destruction of homes and businesses, uprooted trees, and vehicles being tossed over a mile away from their original location. The Tornado struck Western Green Bay at 2:27 PM CDT completely obliterating homes and businesses 12 fatalities occurred in Green Bay. The tornado continued another several miles into lake Michigan and dissipated over the lake at 2:47 PM CDT. In total 52 deaths and 65 injuries were caused by this Tornado with 2 hail related deaths in Asheaubenon. This tornado was responsible for 2.3 billion dollars worth of damage becoming the costliest tornado in Wisconsin State history.

Aftermath and Damage Survey[]


Appleton, Wisconsin[]

a. Construction practices

construction practices on homes within Appleton usually met building code expectations but usually never exceeded building code expectations (Expected or EXP). Many homes (DI 2 FR12) within Appleton usually sustained the following, "Most walls collapsed, except small interior rooms". The usually consisted of estimated windspeeds of 68 ms⁻¹. One home was found to have a concrete foundation with few-some debris left on the foundation, but further investigation into the construction of this home revealed that this home had the sill plates straight nailed into the foundation which is an improper anchoring method. Therefore this damage indicator was put into the "Lowerbound" (LB) category on the Enhanced Fujita Scale with estimated winds of 74 ms⁻¹.

b. Social impact

many of citizens of Appleton tended to be in "shock" or "disbelief". They would state that "they have lost everything" and would be in desperation of typical needs (Food, water, shelter).

Little Rapids, Wisconsin[]

a. Why the tornado did not earn EF5 in Little Rapids

Little Rapids, Wisconsin is a small town southwest of Green Bay, Wisconsin. Little Rapids usually consists of homes (DI 2 FR12) being the primary source of "structures" within town. The homes that were impacted by the tornado would consist of clean slabs with little debris left on the foundation, but the construction homes were questionable when it came to the EF5 rating. The homes would usually have unproperly sized nuts and washers surrounding the mounting hardware, which would contribute to the strength of the structure. The homes would also usually still have the plumbing (pipes) remaining on the foundation. This weakness of the structure and the plumbing still remaining on the foundation would ultimately hold the EF5 rating away from homes in Little Rapids. Because of this criteria, the maximum rating in Little rapids would be EF4 with estimated winds of 85 ms⁻¹.

b. Casualties

The tornado would cause 15 casualties in Little Rapids and most of these injuries were severe injuries such as head trauma, broken bones, and severe cut wounds. These injuries would be justified as "Horrific", and the people with these injuries would endure severe physical pain.

Green Bay, Wisconsin (Metropolitan area)[]

a. Reasons behind the EF5 rating

The major Green Bay metropolitan area (east area) would be impacted by the tornado and numerous homes would be completely destroyed or swept clean of debris. Damage surveys would reveal the various homes within the Green Bay metropolitan area would not meet the building code within the area and would be rated high-end EF3 to low-end EF4. Few homes would meet the building code such as having the correct mounting hardware such has having properly fitted nuts, washers, and large anchor bolts. Anchor bolts on the well constructed homes would only be 4' apart from one another adding strength to the structure as not only were they anchored correctly, but numerous amounts of these anchor bolts would be present to ensure the structure was sturdy and strong. Because of this structural criteria, the tornado would be given the very rare rating of EF5 with estimated winds of 98.5 ms⁻¹.

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