On the same day i joined Hypothetical Tornadoes Wiki (ironically) i started playing Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege on the Xbox One
My R6 stats
I started as a Level 0 (like every siege player) I didn't even have my own R6 Siege copy yet, I was using my brothers copy...he is a Gold IV (it goes like Bronze IV, Bronze III, Bronze II, Bronze I)
My brother's R6 stats
Before i knew it i was already a Level 6, A few weeks ago i ranked up to Silver IV...i then ranked up to Silver III a few days ago, later that night i was deranked back down to Silver IV...yesterday i was deranked again to Bronze I...
Probably the best R6 player i know is my EVEN bigger brother, SailedMercury58 (who also uses mine or my brothers Xbox One)
My EVEN bigger brothers R6 stats
I…Read more >
I think the Perryville tornado was a EF4 Dr. Greg Forbes of the Weather Channel said "It depends on how well built the home was" so maybe we have the first EF4 of the year (it should be the second Albany Georgia should be the first). Surveys have reveld 160 MPH in a tornado in Washburn Illinois. For the Ottawa I dont now how storng it was because the Chiagao radar was down. Is this EF4 damage. Update the tornado has been rated EF4. Me Nojo were right! But now there appers to be Borderline EF5 damage maybe we have a EF5 on our hands. Okay so now it says one anchor bolted home was swept away and a farm house was obliterated. Also aparently contexual surronding is this going to be Vilonia again. So I have news Oak Grove Missouri was given a p…Read more >
Everyone will be reset and those i chose to give rights to, will be given new responsibilities.
Anyone who hasnt been active within 2 Months will be Demoted a certain level, anyone who hasnt been active in 4 will be COMPLETELY demoted.
i am trying to set some fairness here.
Plus, a redesign of the wiki is in the cards.
CycloneRyne94 (talk) 21:26, March 1, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
Just a quick initial uupdate,but a Moderate Risk has been issued for parts of KY and Tennessee. The Enhanced Risk is now over parts of PA, DC, KY, VA and WV just to name a few.
Ill update again later.Read more >
A very damaging tornado hit Perryvile Missouri the damage indicates possible EF5 damage a home was reduced to bare slab in the area some were leveled the tornado destroyed 8-10 homes and then moved over I-55 killing 1 person another one hit ottawa Illnois one almost hit Vilonia Ak one hit Griffin Indiana the Perryville was the storngest I saw the cell that produced it on radar (it had no hook but very strong rotation) I will post a blog when the tornadoes are rated. 1 will be rated EF4+. Rotation on Fort Branch Indiana storm 207 MPH EF5 winds are observed so maybe.The rotation was so storng it was having trouble reading usaly indicating EF4 strength. Perryville rated EF3+.Ottawa High End EF3. Perryville most likely Low End EF4.Read more >
As promised, I will be posting updates here throughout the day on the expected tornado event across the MS and OH Valley.
The (currently) Enhanced Risk remains in effect, though forecast, as already said, has been changed to include strong tornadoes. the latest MDs and Watches are updated on the SPC website.
I will continue to post updates throughout the day here, or create a new blog if required. If you are in the risk area, please continue to monitor the situation, and i will update later on, or when the situation is required.
UPDATE: 1300 UTC
The Enhanced Risk has now been extended. It now covers parts of IN, MO, IL and KY. There is now a 10% risk of tornadoes, and 30% risks for wind and hail within this zone.
UPDATE: 1730 UTC A Moderate Ris…Read more >
As I say on every post, I will continue to blog the latest information when there is a severe weather threat, and so here it goes.
Today now has a large area of Marginal Risk, compromising as parts of TX, LA, OK, AR, and KS. Although only strong thunderstorms are the only risk at this time, I believe this might change later on as the mid-level trough continues to slowly amplify. I wold not be surprised to see a Slight Risk issued later on as the threat continues to increase, but we will just have to see on that one.
Now, onto the more serious matters. An Enhanced Risk is already in effect for tomorrows anticipated tornado event. An Enhanced Risk is forecast for parts of AR, KY, IL, MI and TN. The main risk is forecast to be greatest during t…Read more >
In case no one has seen the latest SPC outlooks, there is now an Enhanced Risk outlook for Tuesday, and even already a 30% chance for severe weather on Wednesday, along with a huge area of 15% risk, but we will get to that soon.
Tomorrows outlook has now been raised to Marginal, though the risk is only expected to be strong thunderstorms over MS and AL.
Tuesdays outlook has an Enhanced Risk for AR and MI, which I'm afraid to say now includes a tornado threat, as well as the usual damaging winds and large hail. Around this zone, the Slight Risk extends over IN, OH and MO, followed by a Marginal Risk over areas of TX and TN.
Wednesdays outlook looks disturbing already to say the least, and may end up a High Risk on the day. A 30% hatched risk c…Read more >
OK, so the new convective outlooks have been released by SPC, with today now being marked as Marginal Risk over parts of northwestern TX, with the only threat being large hail associated with stronger thunder storms during the afternoon and into the evening. In addition to this, only thunderstorms are forecast along the US Gulf Coast and central states, but I seriously wouldnt be surprised if a Marginal or Slight Risk were to be issued in association with the dryline trying to set itself up across the shortwave trough that will be responsible for the outbreak of severe weather this week.
As for Day 3 of the outlook, this is where things change. An Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms is currently forecast for areas of eastern OK, the whol…Read more >
The title of this post says it all,and i currently tracking several storms over PA on radar, one of which not long passed Mount Joy. Severe thunderstorm watches are in place form the SPC form PA to NE.
Ill keep updating until about 0030 UTC. Today is a Slight Risk, but i wouldnt be surprised to see an Enhanced Risk issued
UPDATE: 2040 UTC
Several severe thunderstorms are now situated within the watch areas 0239 and 0240. Several tornadoes have been indicated on radar in the last hour, and the potential for tornadic supercells should increase within the next few hours if the current organisation trend continues, with a tornado watch possible if this is the case.
UPDATE: 2105 UTC
Severe thunderstorms continue, with 2 more tornadoes having been in…Read more >
So, the new SPC forecasts were released about an hour ago, and call for thunderstorms across much of the Gulf Coast states tomorrow and Monday,but no severe storms. However, I think, after seeing the setup they are expecting, that there could be another Marginal Risk for Monday.
Tuesday has a 15% hatched Risk for areas of TX, TN, AR, and LA, though the primary risk is expected to be severe thunderstorms at this time. Wednesday's outlook is similar, with the current 15% risk area over parts of TN, AL, and MS, again with the risk being confined to severe thunderstorms across the expected cold front.
Unrelated, but today has now become a Slight Risk for areas extending from NJ to NE in association with the remains of yesterdays severe weather.…Read more >
The Day 5 SPC convective outlook has another 15% hatched risk area, this time across a small section of NE TX, southern OK, NW LA, most of AR, and part of TN and MS. Not much is known at the current time, but when the data becomes available, i will update this post. If you are in these areas, please keep an eye on the situation as and if it develops.Read more >
OK, the title of this post says it all, at least for now. The Enhanced Risk remains unchanged, though the initial forecast has had modifications by the SPC. The main threat is now expected to be strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, although some large hail and a few tornadoes are expected during the afternoon supercells that are expected.
From what im seeing on radar, this appears to be right for now, but if the situation changes, I will either update the blog, or post it in the comments below as the storm fires up properly tonight.
UPDATE: 1920 UTC
Strong and potentially severe thunderstorms are now becoming evident on radar,with a few producing damaging winds over central IN and areas of extreme NNW OH. I will…Read more >
A quick update on tomorrows expected severe weather events. The Enhanced Risk area has now been made to cover most of OH, all of IN, and parts of MI, and what looks to be extreme norther KY (not very good with the US sorry xD). In addition to this, the Slight Risk has been also extended to now cover the remainder of OH and KY, as well as parts of IL, as well as other states. A Marginal Risk is now expected for parts of TN, PA, and NY.
The latest forecast now calls for a widespread significant wind and hail thereat, with tornadoes expected during the afternoon supercells over the areas being impacted by the system.
Unrelated, but a Slight Risk is now in affect for today covering parts of rural Iowa I think, again im not sure, as well as other…Read more >
This is an update of my previous blogs on the system currently setting up across the Midwestern States.
The current forecast has an Enhanced Risk for areas including Indianapolis, Fort Bend, Fort Wayne and Bloomigton (IN), and Toldeo (OH). Areas under the Slight Risk zone include Chicago (IN), Detroit (MI), Columbus, Cleveland and Cincinnati (OH).
I would not be surprised to see this raised to Moderate Risk on the day in question. A few supercells are expected along the primary frontal line, of which a few could produce tornadoes.
For more details, please visit http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
I will do a new blog or update this one later onRead more >
The latest forecasts from the NWS SPC indicate a larger 15% hatched risk area for Day 5 of the convective outlook. This has also been extended to now cover areas of IL, MI, IN and OH. The primary threat is expected to be a squall line, with widespread severe wind and hail. However, as with most squall lines, the chances of tornadoes cannot be ruled out, and I expect at least a few will touch down along the line on the day in question.
As for the rest of the outlook, days 4, 6, and 7 indicate the possibility of severe weather on some model runs, though this has been unspecified as to what the exact threat will be. One thing is fro certain though: The system responsible for yesterdays severe thunderstorms is weakening, and will likely merge w…Read more >
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms has developed across mid to upper TX over the last hour or so, with a severe thunderstorm watch and mesoscale discussion posted on the cells. The SPC has called for a chance of tornadoes and damaging winds, as well as large 2"+ hail in the area overnight in my time (UTC). If you are in this area, please be monitoring the situation as it develops, and I will post when i come on in the morning, when i will also update the day 6 area of concern.Read more >
OK, its not entirely clear what this system is going to do, as there is so much spread in the model guidance, however, i, and the SPC, can definitely say one thing:Saturday will see a severe weather outbreak across parts of Indiana and Kentucky. The setup looks very favourable for potentially long lived tornadoes, but the tornado models arent really showing anything at this time. I will update this when more is knownRead more >
The latest models have shown La Niña is dissipating, with the IRI forecast suggesting that ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely throughout this year's tornado season (with a 70% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions for the FMA period, roughly 60% for the MAM to AMJ period, and 50% for the MJJ period. By the time we get into summer, models begin to favour El Niño, with a 45% chance of El Niño in the SON period). A graph from IRI showing the ENSO probabilities is shown below for convenience. As I'm sure everyone knows, La Niña is considered to create a favourable environment for tornadoes to develop, while El Niño has the opposite effect. So, does this mean the 2017 tornado season will be a total bust?
Not necessarily. To begin with, the effe…
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Again, i know i havent been around much the last few days, but i have been doing other things apart from editing as well. An Enhanced Risk for severe weather has been issued for tomorrow for parts of Gulf Coast TX, as well as a slight Risk area surrounding that which spreads into MS and LA. Looking at the CAPE values likely to exceed 750 j/kg3, which im afraid to say is the ideal conditions for tornadoes to be affecting the lives of those in the path of this system. A MD is currently in affect near the TX Gulf Coast, tagged with having an unlikely probability of having a watch issued within the next few hours, which will be worth keeping an eye on if you are in the area.
Moving into later this week, and the 7 and 8 day outlooks are suggest…Read more >
In Bob Evans I was there until 10 minutes after closing because of a sundae...My dad spent $2,000 USD today.Read more >
HI guys, and the promised severe weather updates are being done now.
The first of several tornadoes touched down in Madisonville, LA around 1600 UTC, and caused a tornado emergency. The tornado clearly had a well defined hook echo on radar, and a likely tornadic debris signature as well. Damage images of the event are supporting at least an EF3+ preliminary rating.
Asides form that tornado, 2 other long lived and destructive tornadoes have also hit Louisiana, one of which narrowly missed New Orleans.
I am currently tracking a tornado that is near the MS/LA border, and of which has been on the ground for a while now.
One last thing. Today is an Enhanced Risk, but i wouldnt be at all surprised to see it raised to Moderate or even High at this ra…Read more >
The SPC has dropped out the 15% outlook for Wednesday now, yet the areas mentioned yesterday for a slight risk of severe weather. This remains the case, but tomorrow has been slightly extended on the 0100 UTC forecast.
I will update this again if the risks increase, but for now, only a line of regular thunderstorms exists across the northern Alabama and Mississippi areas.Read more >
The forecasts for severe weather have been increased by the SPC overnight, with the 0900 UTC forecasts showing slight risks for Monday and Tuesday across parts of Indiana, Missouri, Tennessee, Ohio, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.
Wednesdays forecast is of some uncertainty at this time, with the SPC showing a 15% probability of severe weather across parts of Alabama and Georgia.
Severe thunderstorms are expected to kick up across much of Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas around the 36 hour mark, which could mark the start of the outbreak. On Tuesday, it appears that northern Mississippi is the main focus of the event, before a new wave of energy moves in over the Gulf Coast around the 4 day mark. But we will see as the situation develops furthe…Read more >
OK, screw the post i finished less than 10 minutes ago.The new model runs are out, and the GFS CAPE model is showing storms kicking up in Texas as soon as 36 hours from now, before much of the Gulf Coast is in the firing line by the overnight hours of Monday into Tuesday, and going strong into Wednesday across much of the Gulf and Central states.
With the CAPE models at 1750 J/Kg3 of air, that favours a significant severe weather outbreak yet again, with parts of Georgia being affected by the outbreak last month back in the firing line for this event.
I cannot stress enough the urgency to stay up to date on the latest model runs, and to keep an eye out for severe weather, and to take immediate shelter when it hits.This year is going to be a …Read more >
My gosh, here we go again...
For the last 3 days, the GFS CAPE models have been consistent with showing a widespread line of dangerous, high precipitation supercells kicking up across much of the Gulf Coast, before travelling up through the midwest, where the setup will be able to favour a widespread severe weather outbreak.
I would not be surprised to see at least a moderate risk from this event, which is set to occur somewhere between Tuesday and Friday, depending on which of the models you see as being most trustworthy.
The NWS SPC is currently forecasting a 15% chance of severe weather occurring across much of the midwest and central US beginning Tuesday. Looking at the models, it appears there is once again the possibility that long trac…Read more >
the NWS SPC has issued a 15% chance of severe weather from Northern Mississippi/Northeastern Arkansas to Northeastern Indiana/Northwestern Ohio...Very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are all possible in this threat zone...here is the threat zoneRead more >
The problem with classifying anything is that it usually takes a few tries before you get it just right. This applies to everything from animal classifications to genres of music, and is especially true when rating tornadoes. The original Fujuta Scale could be too liberal when rating tornadoes, especially in the 1950s and 1960s, while the Enhanced Fujita Scale is often too conservative when rating strong tornadoes, especially in the last few years. Damage indicators are being excluded from official surveys in a few cases, and the official rating criteria are considered too narrow by many meteorologists, storm chasers, and enthusiasts. This is a list of tornadoes that were likely stronger than their official Enhanced Fujita Scale rating.
Tor…Read more >
I missed theese EF4's and the reasons will be next to the tornado.
Rochelle IL, missed because went to bed right before it.
Holly Springs Miss, In England
Garland Texas, in England
Katie Ok, forgot to check outlook
Chapman Kansas, the weather channel said more tornadoes the next day
Vilonia Ak, to late
Pilger tornado family, in EnglandRead more >
No Thunderstorms have been occuring in the US over the past few days...Read more >
At about 8:00PM yesterday my YouTube channel SPCmuncie hit 100 subscribers...my channel started in 2014.Read more >
OK, i know i havent been very active today on the whole (i got addicted to a game for most of the day, lol), but im back now with this blog.
As we have seen over the weekend, at least 30-odd tornadoes have touched down across the states of MS, LA, AL, FL, GA and SC, accumulating to 22 deaths in total, and well over $200 million in dmaages, making it one of the worst winter outbreaks on record.
The NWS SPC had a High Risk bust, but it helped saved hundreds, perhaps thousands of lives as large, long lived (but not the expected violent( tornadoes touched down.
From what the ENSO forecast models are saying, the year seems at this point in time to be favouring an active US tornado season, with the unfortunate possibility of damaging, violent and d…Read more >
The Albany tornado was given a preliminary rating of EF2 for some reason I didn't now why and the damage was at least EF4 unless someone didn't bolt them into the foundation or EF5 maybe it might have hit a town in Wilcox county. Or EF3 butt the track was pretty long and 2 tornado emergencies were issued that almost never happens for one tornado so it will have too be a EF3 unless Vilonia happens again. And the damage looked really like an EF4 and the velocity on the Weather channel showed a violent tornado it was the worst I have ever seen (other than the Moore tornado of 2013). Also at first up until tonight I thought this was at least a High-end EF3 until the preliminary reports came in. And this year is going to be just like 2011 hopef…Read more >
After a devastating wedge tornado caused 11 deaths and the issuance of a tornado emergency and state of emergency in 3 counties in Georgia last night, the preliminary damage reports are out, and the results are depressing at best.
Ive seen the images of the damage, and it is horrific to look at. Sheets of metal wrapped around trees, mobile homes ripped apart and the debris scattered and wind rowed. In some cases, houses bolted to their foundations have been demolished, and extensive ground scouring has also been noted in the areas affected by the event.
It is highly likely that this tornado will be rated at east amid range EF4, but i wouldnt be surprised if it was to be rated at high end EF4, or even EF5 should the NWS SPC team investigating …Read more >
OK, so im sure we have all been monitoring the devastating situation that has developed across much of the southern US/
For only the second time on record, a High Risk was issued for severe weather in the moths of January, the other happened during the January 21-23, 1999 tornado outbreak, which saw an F4 tornado in Arkansas.
Todays High Risk has regrettably been proven right,with wave after wave of supercellular storms sweeping across much of the southern US since about 1400 UTC, with several of those having being long lived.
2 tornado emergencies have been declared so far, IN Albany and Double Run, both in Georgia, which took the full force of a large, destructive tornadoes at 2030 and 2113 UTC, respectively.
One of these, in Albany, is so f…Read more >
The SPC has issued a High Risk for Severe Storms for much of Florida, South Georgia and extreme Southeastern Alabama...Very Long Track and Violent Tornadoes are likely...holy crap i thought today was a Enhanced Risk day xDRead more >
Guys in scottville Texas a home was destroyed possible EF4 damage I thinkRead more >
OK, we all saw this coming, but the NWS SPC has issued the much expected High Risk for severe weather, making it the first since 2014 in the process.
A widespread significant tornado outbreak is expected across Florida, Georgia, and parts of South Carolina this afternoon and tonight, with the potential for long lived, violent tornadoes not out of the question at all.
From what i am seeing, most of the categories are maxed out, with extremely favourable conditions expected across most of northern Florida into most of Georgia, the area covered by the High Risk category. Anyone in the path of this system needs to watch the weather, because it is in events like this that carelessness causes significant loss of life. PDS tornado watches will be i…Read more >
OK, so i thought id check out the storm reports and previous tornadic alerts form overnight, and i find that tornado watch 17 was a PDS, with most of the warning criteria maxed out.A 90% probability for tornadoes, and an 80% chance for EF2+ tornadoes for parts of AL and MS. I'm actually pretty surprised that a High Risk wasnt issued overnight,with the chances for tornadoes being that high, but nevermind.
It seems worth mentioning that numerous reports of tornadoes with significant debris on radar and on the ground says that intense to violent tornadoes have occurred overnight, with the possibility of the tornado around midnight in LA being at least an EF2 if its confirmed, having been on the ground for close to 45 minutes on radar imagery. …Read more >
OK, ive been monitoring the system since it developed 3 days agooff the Pacific coast, and the long awaited madness is happening.
A likely EF3 tornado struck Hattiesburg Ms at about 0930 my time yesterday morning, levelling buildings in its path, and since then, almost every tornado has produced significant structural damages, and the threat continues to grow larger as new supercells continue to fire.
Long lived tornadoes have occurred in GA and LA,and cells are beginning to develop hook echos as well, raising the concerns of intense to violent tornadoes.
Either way, ill post again later on as the situation continues. I will not be surprised if an EF4 tornado were to happen overnight in TX or LA, where the cells seem most concentrated.Read more >
Today the Storm Prediction Center issued a moderate risk for the Ark-La-Miss region and an enhanced risk for most of the Southeast. A 10% risk of tornadoes has been issued for the Ark-La-Miss area, and a 10% hatched risk for the Florida Panhandle, Southeast Alabama, and Central Georgia.
There have already been several squall lines in Alabama and Georgia with some small, localized areas of rotation, and a few wind and tornado reports this morning. Supercells are expected to fire up in the Ark-La-Miss region this afternoon as a shortwave creates more lift, followed by either another squall line or more supercells in the evening and overnight in Alabama, Georgia and Florida.
I think this is the earliest moderate risk issued in the year since 20…Read more >
4 were killed in Mississippi from last night's tornadoes, with another moderate risk today.Read more >
This morning i woke up and i was a EF0 active...at 8PM i got on and i was a EF2 very active...every time i reloaded a page that showed my things it would briefly say Chat Moderator...what am i?Read more >
Severe Weather Briefing for Sunday, January 20, 2017...started at 7:26AM Eastern Standard Time...A few Severe Thunderstorms capable of producing Tornadoes and large hail are possible...and Trump will be president of the United States effective at 12PM-1PM EDT...Read more >
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
CORRECTED TO ADD MISSING WORD
...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast Atlantic coast Sunday/day 4... Substantial cyclogenesis is expected, generally in the immediate lee of the southern Appalachians, Sunday into Monday morning as a strong mid-upper shortwave trough traverses the Southeast and Gulf basin. There are some differences in the details regarding the cyclogenesis and lingering influences of a lead speed max early in the period. However, the scenario still appears favorable for a squall line to form along or in advance of the synoptic cold front which will then move across parts of FL/…
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Dear fellow users of the Hypothetical Tornadoes Wiki,
- This might seem sudden, but I'm stepping down from the staff of this wiki. I know that I did some things as an admin, but I don't have much time for this wiki anymore. I will still be around here and there, but I'm no longer going to be an administrator.
Your former administrator,
TGRead more >
OK then guys, time to bring you up to speed again for the update. I filed a spotlight request about a week agao, which began going through about 4 this morning my time, which i think is encouraging to this community.
For those of you who dont know what a spotlighting is or its benefits, i shall outline the ones i know (ive never done this before). The wiki will get a special mention by staff, which will place us on the bar of wikis at the bottom of every page on every wiki. Hopefully this will help to attract evenmore users here in given time. Whats more, this will put us in a position to be able to link up with other wikis similar to our own.
Heres what needs doing to make the wiki look its best:
- Pages with bugs on them will need the bugs c…
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Uh...yeah...this is the Day 3 and Day 4 outlooks...xDRead more >
There wasn't even a Slight Risk...only a marginal risk and a 2% chance of tornadoes...not even the requirments for a TOA...but NOPE! the Storm Prediction Center issued one anyway!URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 6 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM EST Sat Jan 7 2017
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Florida Coastal Waters
* Effective this Saturday morning from 1235 AM until 500 AM EST.
* Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of storms over the northeast Gulf of Mexico should spread inland across parts of northwest Florida early this …
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