April 29, 2017 outlook
OK, so theres yet another Enhanced Risk out for todays outlook it seems. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected, which may pose a risk of there being large hail, damaging winds, and even a few tornadoes could be possible.
The Enhanced Risk goes from mid TX up into parts of LA, OK, most of AR, and some of KS. This is surrounded by the usual Slight Risk area, which goes from around the Enhanced Risk area into parts of TN, KY, IL and OH.
It is worth noting that the 5% chance for tornadoes could be a little conservative based on the SPC forecasts for a 30% risk of both large hail, and damaging winds, but we will see later on today what happens.
As always, I will be updating this post if it is needed.
April 28, 2017 outlook
OK, so it seems that today has only received a large Enhanced Risk, at least for now. Within the risk area, there is the potential for numerous severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes according to the SPC.
The Enhanced Risk covers parts of TX, OK, AR, KS, KY, IN, OH, and TN, surrounded by a Slight Risk that covers areas of NE, and some of VA.
Now, onto yesterdays tornado reports, of which, besides the Marginal Risk, were plentiful. AL saw numerous tornadoes. A tornado in Montgomery County did widespread tree damage, and will probably receive an EF1 rating when surveys are complete. Another tornado was reported in Pike County, again in AL, which also produced considerable tree damage along its path. Bo…
April 26, 2017 outlook
OK, so here is the expected tornadic event, which has arrived earlier than expected. A Moderate Risk of severe thundertorms has been issued for parts of TX, AR and LA in association with a trough and dryline, as well as a developing surface frontal zone. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, of which a few could be strong, are forecast within this area.
An Enhanced Risk is also in effect for parts of TX, OK, TN and KS. This area has the potential for a few tornadoes, as well as some large hail and damaging wind gusts. This is surrounded by the usual Slight Risk area, which is expected to cover parts of IN, IL, KY, MS, and AL.
The main risk is expected to be during the early afternoon and into the early evening, and I will …
Dangerous tornado outbreak expected this week
OK, I thought I'd bring you upto date with the latest developments on the expected tornado outbreak this week, so here goes.
Another trough is expected to move across the Plains on Friday, and coupled withan initial capping sector along a developing warm front, the conditions are forecast to be favourable for severe development later in the day once the cap breaks. This will allow fpr the possibility of supercell development, bring t=bringing the threat of large to very large hail, strong to dmaaging winds, and tornadoes to these areas. The SPC 30% hatched risk area is covering most of OK, as well as parts of AR. It is worth noting that an anticipated dryline is expected to form in this area, and that CAPE values will be extremely high - 5…
April 23, 2017 outlook
The 1300 UTC outlook has called for a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of GA and SC. The main risk is expected to be a few damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
Not much can be said now, so I'll update if need be.
Retireing from Tornandoes
Im sad to announce my retirement it was fun being here i may come out of retirement one day for a third run but for now i am far too inactive
if i ever come back for a third run i will redisimgh rebuild and reclaim what i had before
NO this not an april fools joke
TheLunar2 (talk) 13:58, April 23, 2017 (UTC)
Dangerous tornado outbreak possible next week
OK, this one might take some time, but here it goes. Model runs are suggesting a potent midway trough will be present across the four corner states. It is worth noting that although the Euro and GFS models, whilst showing different intensities of the trough and locations, both show a very moist environment over the four corners states of TX, OK,NE and AR.
The Euro is particularly consistent with this scenario, ejecting a vigorous shortwave trough from the central plains states. The GFS, on the other hand, keeps the trough going into the the four corners states. Both models, however, collide a very moist airmass with a well developed dryline by the afternoon of Thursday, April 28, and besides the difference between the modelling solutions, b…
April 22, 2017 outlook
There is currently a Slight Risk of severe weather in effect for 1200 UTC onwards (the next convective day). The main threat appears to be damaging wind gusts (15%) and large hail (15%), of which both of these have a Slight chance of occurring. There is also a Marginal (2%) chance for tornadoes.
The Slight Risk areas include far eastern LA, most of central MS, the northern half of AL, and the southern half of TN, which is surrounded by the usual Marginal Risk, which extends up the East Coast tot he Canadian border, where the 2% tornado probability is.
There was a tornado reported and confirmed by a spotter in Valley View, TX, which was heavily rain wrapped. Further details remain unknown at this time. Apart from that, there were several repo…
April 21, 2017 outlook
Today has ended up the 3rd Enhanced Risk outlook from the NWS SPC in a row, and to be honest, im surprised it not a Moderate.
The northern parts of TX, as well as southern OK, are in this risk area, which holds a 30% chance (moderate) for damaging winds, a 30% chance (moderate) for large to very large hail, as well as a slight chance (5%) for tornadoes.
The Slight Risk that surrounds it goes into central AR, though the threat is much less there.
Anyway, I'll update this as always if needed.
April 20, 2017 outlook
Today has another Enhanced Risk out, this time for a moderate wind risk (30%), large hail (15), as well as a small risk (5%) of tornadoes. This risk area covers areas of IL, MI and OH. Surrounding this area is the usual Slight Risk, which covers the areas immediately surrounding the Enhanced, as well as parts of extreme east-central US.
Further to the southwest, a Slight Risk has also been issued, with the expectation of a slight (15%) risk of large hail associated with afternoon thunderstorms. Areas in this area include northeastern TX, and from western to central OK.
The Marginal Risk goes between these two areas, as well as around them, like normal.
Onto yesterdays reports, where there were 3 tornado reports, all related. The suspected tor…
April 19, 2017 outlook
Today has become an Enhanced Risk for severe weather for portions of far northeastern NE, and most of IA. In the Slight Risk today will be parts of MI, WI, KS and IL.
The main risk is expected to be large hail (30%), damaging winds (15%), and the possibility of a few tornadoes (10%0 across a small portion of central IA.
The risk is expected to begin during mid afternoon for the areas affected, and will most likely last into the overnight hours.
As always, if the threat of severe weather requires an update to this blog, I will be able to do it until about 2230 UTC as always.
April 16, 2017 outlook
OK, straight into the post. There is a Slight Risk of severe weather for parts of TX, OK, KS and MO. Large hail,and a few instances of strong to damaging winds are expected, and the possibility of tornadoes, though only marginal (2%), cant be ruled out. The line of severe weather, if it occurs, will stretch from the Southern Plains up into the Ozarks.
The Marginal Risk area covers around the Slight Risk, as usual, and then up to the Canadian border along the eastern coast.
Whilst there were 6 reports of tornadoes yesterday, they were all short lived, and none did any significant damage. The tornado that happened outside Dimmitt, TX on April 14 was revealed to have remained stationary for over an hour, and was over a mile wide. Luckily though…
April 15, 2017 outlook
OK then,straight into todays post, which on time today :P
There is a large Slight Risk that covers parts of TX, OK, KS, NE, MI, IA, IL and WI. The main threat is expected to be large hail and damaging winds, but the setup looks as though it could harvest a few weak tornadoes as well within the stronger storms.
If anyone hasnt heard about it, a series of tornadoes was reported near Dimmit, TX last night, one of which was reported as a large multiple vortex tornado, with one other related report to it. The supercell responsible received numerous PDS Tornado Warnings during its life, and dropped at least 3 confirmed tornadoes whilst active.
Anyway, if this post needs updating, it will be done when the time comes, as always.
April 14, 2017 outlook
OK, very late blog, I'm aware, but the event isnt expected to begin for another few hours. A few severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, as well as isolated cases of strong to damaging winds. This affects parts of TX, NM, OK, and KS.
If this blog needs updating, I will be around for a few more hours to do so until about 2300 UTC.
April 12, 2017 outlook
Okie dokie, there has been a Slight Risk issued today for parts of extreme Northwest TX, Southwest NM, with the main threats expected to be large hail and some damaging wind gusts.
Not much to say on yesterdays Marginal Risk of course, apart from a few cases of large hail and a few instances of gusty winds.
As always, I'll update this post if needed.
April 10, 2017 outlook
OK, I think I will apologise first of all for doing this so late, but I wanted to be absolutely sure on the double risk area, which meant waiting until 1300 UTC. Anyway, there is a double Slight Risk out for today, with areas of the northern and southern areas at risk.
The first area, covering parts of IL, WI, MI and OH. Apologies for any mistakes with state names, but I'm unfamiliar with the northern states. Anyway, this area holds the potential for severe thunderstorms capable of some large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps (but unlikely), a tornado or two as well.
The second area, which covers most of central TX into parts of LA and AR, holds the potential for some strong thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail.
As always…
April 9, 2017 outlook
OK, so there have been no posts the last few days, as there has only been Marginal Risks. Today, however, has quite a large Slight Risk area, and so is getting a post.
Severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of OK, NE, MN, KS, and IA. These storms are expected to bring isolated large hail, a few damaging wind gusts, and a marginal threat of tornadoes.
As I havent updated already, the results from the April 5 High Risk are back, with 18 confirmed tornadoes, and 12 more suspected. From the 2 1/2 hour long tornado in GA, damage surveys are still ongoing, but the preliminary damage rating was EF2.
As always, this post will be updated if needed.
One of my favorite electronic store chains going out of buisness
Some of you (but probably not anyone outside of the Eastern US) might have heard of hhgregg (Yes, the one that is failing) It's slogan is "Gregg's got it!" It was founded in Princeton, Indiana and is headquarted in Indianapolis, Indiana...on March 2 they announced that they were filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy and they were closing 88 of there 226 stores, this was upgraded a month later to ALL 226 stores, I think one of the reasons is too common sales (There was sale for opening in south FL)...my local hhgregg opened in 1987...and is location #0009 (It was founded in the 60's) hhgregg will start their closing sales today. (RIP hhgregg)
http://www.wthr.com/article/hhgregg-begins-liquidation-sale-to-start-saturday
http://nbc4i.com/2017/04/07/…
April 5, 2017 outlook
OK. Today's outlook is of particular concern, so we will jump straight into it. A Moderate Risk is in effect for most of GA, as well as parts of AL, TN, SC and KY. It is also worth mentioning that some areas of GA and AL have the potential to be upgraded to High Risk later in the day if the expected outbreak does indeed materialise.
An Enhanced Risk surrounds the Moderate area, covering parts of IN, OH, NC, and FL. This is surrounded by the usual Slight and Marginal Risk areas.
Today's forecast is calling for a likely hood of an outbreak of severe thunderstorms from the TN and OH Valleys, with the potential for supercell development. Within the expected supercells, tornadoes are expected to be strong and/or long lived, being able to produce …
April 4, 2017 outlook
OK, straight into todays outlook. There is a double Enhanced Risk today, one concerning tornadoes, the other large hail. Both areas have a potential for damaging winds.
The first area, over parts of northeast OK, southeast KS, and far southwestern MO, holds a 30% chance of significant large hail, as well as a 10% chance of damaging winds. There also appears to be a 2% probability of tornadoes, but this isnt as much of a concern as it has been in recent outlooks. As usual, there is the Slight Risk that surrounds this area, along with the Marginal.
The second, more significant Enhanced Risk area lies across eastern central MS and western central AL, and has a 10% chance of tornadoes relating to severe thunderstorms. These storms also have a 15…
April 3, 2017 outlook
Today's Moderate Risk has been downgraded to Enhanced (at least for now), as thunderstorm activity has become rather disorganised. The 0830 UTC outlook called for the possibility of a large area of severe thunderstorms capable of severe conditions to develop from the central Gulf Coast to the Carolinas.
It is worth noting that scattered damaging winds and tornadoes are expected, and after looking at radar this morning, there is potential for today to once again become a Moderate Risk.
Now, onto the usual tornado news from the previous day. Two large, very destructive tornadoes hit Alexandria, LA and the cities of Jena and Midway, LA. Both of these significant tornadoes caused tornado emergencies, and both have caused significant damages.
I'll…
April 2, 2017 outlook
I'll jump right in on this post, as its very important to do so. A Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms, most of which are expected to be dangerous, is forecast for today and tonight across the Gulf Coasts of TX and LA. The I20 corridor in particular is at risk, with a concentrated area of significant damaging winds, and several strong/intense tornadoes expected, as well as the threat for very large hail.
As I write this post, there is already a tornado watch out for parts of TX, with a low potential of EF2+ tornadoes. Just to bring to light how serious this is, its only just after 0400 CDT. A possible tornado was located on radar near Vance, moving NE at 30 mph.
Todays setup is too complex to describe here, but the full synopsis is availab…
I can't believe i'm officially saying this..
And it's not even April Fools Day anymore, so you know this has got to be something serious.
--
But, yes folks, i've been gone for a good while again, which i do see resulted in a complete demotion (which isnt fair.. *cough* layten *cough*).. remember the period a while ago in which my life had become so unpredictable i had to take time off and divert my attention elsewhere?
Well, you dont need to be an expert to know that it's happened again.. only worse..
Now, i have been able to get A Break today.. but i've noticed my life seems to be getting more Hectic and Unpredictable.. plus, i seem to kinda forget about other things.. namely this..
Im not kidding, it's really been that bad for me..
And as a matter of fact, it's been getting bad enough t…
Two potentially major systems in the next week
With 366 confirmed tornadoes, the first three months of 2017 have been the most active since at least 1990 (according to Tornado History Project), and while this year probably won't be a record-breaker since the late-season pattern (July-August) is expected to be a bit less favourable, the chances are looking good that 2017 will at least be a fairly active year (my personal guess is probably somewhere in the 1,200 to 1,300 range). Next week's pattern is already looking favourable as well.
To begin with I'm sure everyone has noticed the SPC's Moderate Risk outlook for April 2 (Sunday), which mentions "strong tornadoes and extensive wind damage" as the main hazards along the Western Gulf Coast into east-central Texas.
The event is expected to …
April 1, 2017 outlook
A large portion of central TX, and southeast OK is under a Slight Risk for severe weather today.
A large area of severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and some damaging winds, are expected to develop over these areas. Yet another trough has formed, and is moving over this area today, setting up for tomorrows event over the Gulf Coast. In addition to the trough, a weak surface low with associated fronts will also develop across this region, allowing for some destabilisation of the atmosphere in accordance to this.
Now, onto the usual paragraph that ends the daily post. A tornadic supercell that was PDS warned around 2230 UTC last night produced a damaging tornado that destroyed several buildings, including a church, near South Norfolk a…
March 31, 2017 outlook
OK, so an unexpected double Slight Risk has come into play for today.
The first area, over SE CO, extreme northwestern TX, western OK, and and into central KS, is associated with an upper low, accompanied with limited instability,which should open up the opportunity for some damaging winds and hail.
The other area of risk, which is associated over parts of VA and the Carolina's, will be associated with the remains of yesterday system. A weak tornado or two could also be possible. The event is only expected to be short lived over this region.
If need be, I will update this post, but that is looking unlikely from the current setups.
Closing my account (it's not completely sad...read on)
So as you have saw from the title, I am closing this account. The reason for this is I want to begin sort of a new era on Wikia under a new alias, and this account will be reserved as my "old self". In the "new era" I plan to get more active on different fandoms, and maybe even start coming on HHW discord and chat occasionally to meet you guys (although this won't be often, so don't bet when I'm coming on). The saddest part is that I am still going to be inactive on "hypothetical" wikis, as I consider them a thing of the past, and time is moving on. I might completely leave the hypothetical wikis soon, so don't expect me to stay for a very long time after the "new era" starts. The wikis I will join under my new username will be different, …
NoJO Weather Service tornado report 1 and 2 of March 30, 2017
Report 2
NOJO WEATHER CENTER REPORT 2
LOCATION: 0.2 E SHAMROCK LAKES COUNTY: BLACKFORD STATE: INDIANA
DETAILS: EF-1 DAMAGE DOCUMENTED TO A CHURCH AND SURROUNDING BUILDINGS LESS THAN A
MILE EAST OF SHAMROCK LAKES. PEAK WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 105-130MPH.
Report 1
NOJO WEATHER CENTER REPORT 1
LOCATION: INBETWEEN GASTON AND EATON COUNTY: DELAWARE STATE: INDIANA
DETAILS: A ATLEAST EF-1 TORNADO WITH ATLEAST 105MPH WINDS TOUCHED DOWN ABOUT 5 MILES
EAST OF GASTON, THE TORNADO THEN TRACKED NORTH INTO WESTERN BLACKFORD COUNTY
INFLICTING EF-1/EF-2 DAMAGE.
this is pontenially inaccurate data.
Just wow.
If you saw my newest videos you may have saw that I recorded a video of atleast Ping-Pong ball sized hail in my front and side yards...I also recorded Tornado Watch 104, 2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings...1 unconfirmed tornado warning and a confirmed tornado warning for my home county.
March 30, 2017 outlook
Apologies for this blog being done so late, but I've been busy doing other things. But lets get to what everyone is reading this for.
An Enhanced Risk is in effect for parts of IL, KY and OH. The main risks are expected to be significant wind gusts and large hail, which both have a Moderate outlook on them. Though tornadoes are expected again today, there is only a Marginal Risk of this happening, and the risk is over the MS and OH Valleys.
A large Slight Risk also covers no only the areas around the Enhanced Risk of the outlook, but also entirely covers the MS Valley, as well as parts of the Southeast.
In addition to the main risk area, a Marginal Risk of severe weather is forecast for parts of NV, UT, and NM. The main risk for this area is …
3 storm chasers, 2 with The Weather Channel killed in car accident.
Ok, lets start with the bad side of things...at 3/4:30PM CDT yesterday Kelley Williamson and Randy Yarnell were driving with each other chasing a tornado in Texas when the sped past a stop sign on accident, less than 15 seconds later they collided with another car throwing both cars off the road...Kelley and Randy were killed almost instantly and so was the other storm chaser in the other car named Corbin Jaegar...Dr Greg Forbes confirmed this 2 hours later, so did Texas State Authorites. RIP Kelley, Randy, and Corbin...to all of your families I am sorry for your losses. :(
March 29, 2017 outlook
OK, I'm going to try making this a brief update on today's risk. An Enhanced Risk has been issued again for severe weather, over parts of TX, LA, AR, and and KS. A Moderate Risk may need to be issued. There is a widespread risk of large hail and damaging winds, the as well as a Slight Risk of tornadoes.
The main part of this blog today isn't the weather at the moment, but the deaths of 3 well known storm chasers from the Weather Channel. Kelley Williamson and Randy Yarnell, and as well as Corbin Jaegar, and were killed in a car crash whilst chasing a possible tornado near Spur TX around 1530 CDT. After being in hospital for several hours, and they were confirmed as the only fatalities from the tornado.
I'll update as more information becomes…
March 28, 2017 outlook
THIS BLOG HAS HAD UPDATES SINCE IT WAS WRITTEN. SEE THE UPDATES SECTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE FOR DETAILS.
OK, so today has been Enhanced Risk for a few days now, and this remains the same today, though I'd say looking at the Day 1 outlook that a Moderate Risk could get issued later on if needed.
The SPC is calling for 2 areas of severe weather today. The first over the southern Plains, the second over the Mid Atlantic states.
The first area of risk is over parts of central and northern TX, as well as parts of southern OK. The SPC is calling for the potential for very large hail, and significant wind gusts in this area. It is also worth noting that tornadoes are in the forecast for today, with the potential for some strong tornadoes in no…
March 27, 2017 outlook
Today's Day 1 outlook has become an Enhanced Risk for parts of MS, AR, KY, and most of the central areas of TN. A Slight Risk surrounds this area, as usual, followed by the Marginal.
The main risks for today are for damaging winds and hail associated with the ongoing midwave trough over the continental US. Coupled with the merging of the system with a developing low level warm front, this should enable significant instability to occur in the areas mentioned. In addition to this, a weak surface low and will move over the MS valley, and into the OH valley as well as a developing cold front stalls over the lower MS valley.
CAPE values for this afternoon (US time) are between 1000-1500 j/kgk3, allowing for significant instability to occur as a r…
NoJO Hurricane Center Tropical Update for 1951Z 26-03-2017
THIS IS THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NOJO HURRICANE CENTER
INVEST 90L HAS DEVELOPED WITH
40MPH WINDS OVER THE EAST BAHAMAS, THIS STORM
HAS A 50% CHANCE OF DEVELOPEMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS, A 70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
2 DAYS...AND A 90% CHANCE WITHIN 5 DAYS...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH NUMBER 1 IS UP FROM THE
NOJO HURRICANE
CENTER LOCATED IN MUNCIE, INDIANA FOR THE BAHAMAS
PLEASE STAY AWARE AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IS
LIKELY GOING TO DEVELOP...PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR
THE NEXT UPDATE AT 2030Z.
March 26, 2017 outlook
An Enhanced Risk is in effect for today across parts of TX and OK. The main risk is expected to be large to very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.
Hail has the highest risk, at a Moderate, followed by damaging winds, on Slight, and then finally tornadoes, which is on Marginal on the current outlook.
To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if today pops a Moderate Risk later on, especially over Oklahoma where the greatest risk area is.
Unrelated to today,but almost certainly worth mentioning, a devastating tornado hit Perry, MO around 2000 CDT, demolishing much of the area in the process. Preliminary damage supports at least an EF2, but the investigation of the tornado path hasnt even begun yet there.
UPDATE:1445 UTC, M…
Promoted to Bureaucrat
Ok, so over the past week you guys may have heard that Ryne and Steve are being demoted and I was being promoted...so today Hyper and Layten promoted me to Bureaucrat :D
March 25, 2017 outlook
OK, I've decided to change the way I do these blogs. I will do them based on the day inquestion, unless a significant multi-day outbreak is expected. So here goes.
Today has a Slight Risk on the 0930 UTC outlook, which covers parts of LA,MS, AL, TN, MO, and KY.The main risk is expected to be significnt wind gusts capable of doing damage, though there is currently a marginal risk of tornadoes as well on the current outlook.
To be honest, I wouldnt be surprised to see another Enhanced Risk issued later on this evening my time, but we will see. Yesterdays event was initially poorly forecast, until the 1300 UTC outlook was issued, giving the day an Enhanced Risk.
Any updates that are needed will be posted here when the time comes.
Unrelated to t…
Details on my next weather radio
There has been a eBay listing for a while now on a perfectly working Radioshack 12-259 (which is the predecessor to the Radioshack 12-993) that was posted in 2016, it was a Free shipping, $20 unit...it is surprising that no-one bought it...UNTIL TODAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I bought this 12-259 for $19.99 + Free shipping. (UPDATE AS OF 23-12-2017: I am getting a new 12-993, I got a refund on the 12-259 as it was broken on arrival)
Major change to Day 1 outlook
OK, new post to outline the big change that happened at 1630 UTC. It appears that the system that caused an upgraded to an Enhanced Risk is now capable of producing tornadoes and widespread damaging winds.
Areas under the Enhanced Risk include eastern Texas, most of northern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas. This region is of particular interest for monitoring, with CAPE values at 1200 j/kg3, which is enough energy to allow for severe thunderstorms to acquire the rotation they need to turn into supercells.
Areas covered in the ridiculously large Slight Risk include parts of OK, MS, KS, and NE. The main risk here is expected to be significant winds, and maybe a marginal risk of tornadoes.
Areas under the Enhanced Risk are under a 10% chance of…
Last day as Admin before promotion to Bureaucrat.
If you were in chat yesterday, you would have heard Layten say "NoJO's in for a surprise saturday evening..." also he posted a message on HTW's homepage saying that there is a admin meeting at 2100Z Saturday, and when I said "B-crat?" Layten said "Maybe :P" so we will see at 2100 tomorrow.
UPDATE: 2135 UTC MARCH 25, 2017
The promotion has been made!!! :D
Long period of severe weather expected
UPDATE: 1010 UTC, MARCH 24, 2017:
Rather than write a new post, I've decided to just rewrite this one instead. Anyway, straight to the point.
The Day 1 outlook calls for a Slight Risk of severe weather over parts of TX, OK, AR, KS and MO, with the main threats expected to be strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes within the strongest cells.
The Day 2 outlook calls for another Slight Risk of severe weather, this time across parts of LA, MS, AL, TN, and extreme western FL. The main risk is expected to be strong wind gusts and damaging hail. Although tornadoes arent expected, I will be monitoring the situation for any change in this scenario.
The Day 3 outlook calls for yet another Slight Risk, this time over parts of TX an…
Uncertainty in near future forecasts
OK, so the SPC has changed the forecasts yet again. Days 4, 7 and 8 are now marked as predictability too low, marking an uncertain possibility for severe weather.
The dryline that is expected to cause the severe threat later this week will form in the day 3/4 time frame, and poses some forecasting difficulties with its exact timings.
Day 3 now has a Marginal Risk across the Rockies, and which could potentially become a Slight if model runs can remain consistent on the dryline scenario.
The Day 5 and 6 outlooks continue to show a large 15% hatched risk area, we have and the potential for severe thunderstorms capable or producing at least damaging winds and significant hail is increasing with every run I've seen. Personally, I think there may a…
An update on this weeks severe weather threat
OK, I've decided to do todays update blog as a new post, given the changes that the SPC has made to the forecasts.
The Day 5 15% hatched risk remains, but has now covers parts of TX, OK, and most of AR, LA and MS. Although the threat remains unknown at this time, a dryline is involved, particularly later in the day, which should favour severe thunderstorm potential.
A 15% hatched risk area has now been drawn up for Day 6, which covers parts of LA, FL and GA, as well as most of MS and AL. Again, the exact risk is unknown, so I'll have to post an update as more information becomes available.
For now though, the current outlook is for a Marginal Risk of severe weather across most of TN, as well as parts of KS, IN, SC, and NC, which will most lik…
Wiki update
Hi guys, just a quick post to announce that I am again the leader of this wiki. This time round, we have a Head Bureaucrat role, and which has been taken by Hypercane. This does not need saying, but I am again honoured to be leader here. In addition to this, several users who were demoted have received their rights back, and one very reliable NoJO will be the bureaucrat to replace Steve820 if the currently running demotion thread linked on the homepage goes through.
So, once again, the wiki is under my leadership, and with a Head Bureaucrat to take a second in command position. So enjoy the wiki guys, and the rest of the day wherever you are, and and I will see you around.
Future bureaucrat on Hypothetical Tornadoes
According to Layten I am a soon to be Bureaucrat of HTW as Steve820 and CycloneRyne94 are too inactive. thanks to all of those who support this action :D - NoJO
Forgot to add this xD
'I only used Chrome's inspect element feature to show this example on what my name thing would look like if this falls through :P (I didn't make my tag appear to say EF5 on Everyones thing, only on Inspect Element...i removed it.
Likely tornado risk in extended SPC outlook
Hi guys, just a quick update on the potential tornado risk in the near future.
The ECMWF and GFS, the 2 extended CAPE models, show a deep cyclone moving through the central plains and moving northeastwards.
Although conditions favour severe thunderstorms on day 7, moisture is a concern at this point in time. Day 8, as the SPC says, supports the risk of all types of severe weather, and this includes tornadoes.
At this point, the mentioning of the potential of tornadoes on day 8 of the outlook is a big concern, especially when this is so rare to see so far in advance. This will likely be at least a moderate risk on the day if model solutions are correct, and it could even end up a high risk event.
I'll update as the event comes round.
UPDATE: 090…
I found a great radar app
You guys should get radarscope it has velocity and everything TWC had. One problem it is $10.00
my second account
This is my alternive account I will use it to vote in Tornado Idol, write blog posts,and rarley edit pages. Also could this account edit my main accounts pages?