Hypothetical Tornadoes Wiki

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A high-risk severe weather event is the greatest threat level issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for convective weather events in the United States. High risks are issued only a few times a year when forecasters at the SPC are confident that a major severe weather outbreak, namely tornadoes and occasionally Derechos, will occur on the given day. These are typically reserved for the most extreme events.

Limited details are available for days before the late 1990s, and it is probable that there were additional high-risk days with no online documentation, especially in the 1980s.

High-Risk days

2000-2009

Date Year Region Tornadoes Max Rating Peak Gust Fatalities Outlook Notes
April 23 2000 Deep South 117 F4 116 MPH 138
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Large and devastating outbreak produced 117 tornadoes within 24 hours on the 23rd of April, 2000. 104 of which occurred within 12 hours, the first time ever this has happened. 138 people died from 26 killer tornadoes. 21 of the tornadoes were rated violent (F4/F5), all of which were F5. 3rd deadliest high-risk day on record.
January 10 2008 Deep South 49 EF3 101 MPH 34
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A system that you would typically see in mid-april, rather than January was etiing up over Texas, and Louisana. Bringing warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and dew points in the 70s. A high risk was issued with a 45% SIG tornado risk was issued across much of the Deep south. Several tornadoes touched down, killing 34. The strongest of which was rated EF3.
March 9 2008 Mississippi 26 EF5 128 MPH 415
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2008 Mississippi Tornado Outbreak - Violent outbreak of tornadoes killed 415 people over 2/3 of which were in Mississippi. Deadliest High-risk day on record. Followed by April 27, 2011, and April 23, 2000. Two EF5 tornadoes touched down, one in Jackson, the other in Laurel. An additional 4,265 people were injured. Regarded as the worst outbreak in Mississippi state history.
May 19 2008 Oklahoma, Kansas 42 EF2 94 MPH 0
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Tornado outbreak sequence of May 2008 - Day 2 of outbreak, issued for a 45% SIG chance of tornadoes. 42 tornadoes touched down, all were weak. The event busted as a whole.
May 20 2008 Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, New Mexico, Colorado 98 EF5 88 MPH 76
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Tornado outbreak sequence of May 2008 - Day 3 of outbreak. Long-track violent tornadoes touched down in Oklahoma. Including EF4s in Altus, Doby Springs and an EF5 in Fort Towson.

2010–2019

There were no high-risk days in 2015, 2016, or 2018. The 31 months between high-risk days in June 2014 and January 2017 is the longest since at least the 1980s. 

Date Year Region Tornadoes Max Rating Peak Gust Fatalities Outlook Notes
May 20 2019 Oklahoma, Texas 39 EF3 99 MPH (159 KMH) 0
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Tornado outbreak sequence of May 2019 - Day 4 of outbreak. Initially issued for a 30% probability of significant tornadoes; expanded and upgraded at 1626Z for a 45% probability of significant tornadoes, exceeding the high-risk criteria. This high risk produced the second known tornado watch with a >95% chance of all hazards (PDS Tornado Watch 199). Even though multiple long-tracked Violent tornadoes touched down none of them were rated EF4 or EF5 due to the fact of hitting rural areas. One tornado hit Magnum and recorded winds in excess of 304 MPH, but was rated high-end EF2 because the most severe damage was to a mobile home.

2020-Present

Date Year Region Tornadoes Max Rating Peak Gust Fatalities Outlook Notes
March 18 2020 Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, Tennessee, Northern Alabama 62 EF4 106 MPH (170.59 KMH) 72
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March 2020 Tornado outbreak sequence -  Day 7 of outbreak. Issued for a 30% Risk of significant tornadoes, Very violent long-tracked tornadoes tracked across Kentucky and Ohio. Extreme damage occurred from an EF4 tornado in Louisville, Remarkably No deaths were reported in Louisville, however,  36 people have been injured. Very severe damage was also reported in Lexington with reports saying that this tornado could very well be High-end EF4 or EF5 damage. Buildings were swept clean and houses destroyed in the subdivision of Masterson station. With trees debarked and denuded, Tornado was officially rated a high-end EF4 with wind speeds of 194 MPH, so far 41 Deaths were confirmed in Lexington and well over 100 were injured. Deaths also occurred in  Garrard, Shelby, and Nelson Counties.
March 19 2020 Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, southern Kentucky 58 EF4 98 MPH (157 KMH) 126
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March 2020 Tornado outbreak sequence -  Day 8 of outbreak. Issued for 30% risk of significant tornadoes. Initially a Moderate risk but upgraded at 1300 UTC. Large violent tornadoes touched down in Alabama and Tennessee. An EF4 tornado hit Huntsville, AL causing 43 Fatalities and another EF4 hit Pigeon forge, TN causing 89 fatalities and at least 256 injuries. Deadliest High-risk day since April 27, 2011.
April 12 2020 Louisana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee 77 EF4 125 MPH 81
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High risk issued for a 30% SIG chance of tornadoes, later upgraded to a 45% chance. A very violent EF4-EF5 tornado reduced homes to bare slab in Laurel and another EF4 levelled homes in Cedar Bluff, AL. The Laurel tornado was the first in the city since 2008.
May 8 2020 Texas, Oklahoma 28 EF4 118 MPH 8
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May 2020 Tornado outbreak sequence - Day 2 of outbreak, High risk issued for a 30% SIG chance of tornadoes. Event did not consolidate with only isolated weak tornadoes touching down.
May 9 2020 Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska 94 EF5 121 MPH TBD
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May 2020 Tornado outbreak sequence - Day 3 of outbreak, High risk issued for a 45% SIG chance of tornadoes. For only the second time in history, a Day 2 High risk was issued. A large violent EF5 killed 38 people in McPherson, KS making it the first EF5 tornado in the United States since 2013.
May 10 2020 Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Missouri TBD EF4 194 MPH Unknown
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May 2020 Tornado outbreak sequence - Day 4 of outbreak, High risk issued for a 45% SIG chance of tornadoes. Only the 2nd occurrance of 3 High-risk days in a row. Violent tornadoes touched down in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missourri causing at least 15 fatalities.
June 3 2020 Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri TBD EF? ? ?
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2020 American Derechoes - High risk issued for a 60% SIG wind probability, tornado risk was at a 15% SIG, which is below High-risk standards.
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